The 2025 Academy Awards Proves Surprising and Disappointing
The times, they are a-changin'
The year 2025 has already proven to be disastrous. With the worst wildfires in generations raging through the American West and the American government slipping into the final stages of oligarchy, we need some lighthearted fluff to ease our hearts and minds. Fortunately, next month a bunch of actors and technicians will compete for a little gold bald man. It's Oscar season and the Academy has given us a cornucopia of pleasant surprises and predictable disappointments. So, let's get to the big awards:
Best Picture
This is a race between an over 3-hour epic that nobody has seen yet (The Brutalist), a crowd-pleasing epic that everybody has seen (Wicked), and a convoluted epic that has seemed to enrage everyone in the world (Emilia Perez). The Academy has spent these last few years giving the big prize to something that hits with audiences and that means good things for Wicked, but is it enough to win? Wicked was... a perfectly fine film (please don't beat me up, Wicked fans) but giving it Best Picture seems a little hyperbolic. The Brutalist feels more like the Oscars' cup of tea, but it's not a film that gets anyone outside of cinephilia excited. And then there's Emilia Perez; the head-scratching crime drama/gender-bending musical that has become the internet's public enemy. It is easily the worst film nominated but that has never stopped the Academy. I also must give a shout-out to The Substance. A campy horror/comedy with gross-out effects worthy of Frank Henenlotter nominated for Best Picture? I do believe in miracles! It won't win, but even a nomination is cause for celebration among the freaks out there. Anyway, the Academy loves to stir controversy so I say it goes to Emilia Perez.
Best Director
Picture and Director usually go hand-in-hand so it's a good guess that this one will go to Jacques Audriard for his dime-store impression of (Spanish director and filmmaker) Pedro Almodovar in Emilia Perez. But this could be where the Academy shows its love for The Brutalist and gives it to Brady Corbet. Sean Baker (Anora) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) would be more enjoyable picks, but I think Corbet is going to get it.
Best Actor
This one feels like it's been Adrian Brody's to lose for months. His performance in The Brutalist has been getting raves since the film was first seen by critics. By this point, it's all but guaranteed. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) might have an outside chance and I'm happy that Colman Domingo got in for Sing Sing. But Brody has it in the bag already.
Best Actress
I thought this would be a two-person race between Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Karla Sophia Gascon (Emilia Perez) but then Demi Moore did the impossible and got an Oscar nomination for a horror film! Her Golden Globe win makes her a frontrunner, but is The Substance too weird for the notoriously stuffy Academy? Of course, Mikey Madison should absolutely win for her performance in Anora, but at this point she's an underdog. But I've always loved the underdog, so I'm voting for her anyway. Mikey's got this!
Best Supporting Actor
This one could go a lot of different ways but I'm standing by Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. His performance elevated the entire film. Of course, the same can be said for Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and I'm just giddy that Yuri Borisov got in for Anora. Any one of them has a good chance at winning, but I'm sticking with Culkin.
Best Supporting Actress
This one is definitely between Ariana Grande for Wicked and Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez and at this point, I think Saldana has it. She was a clear highlight who did the most she could in a very ridiculous film and even though this is another instance of category fraud (Saldana is clearly the lead for much of the film), there's no way she's losing this race.
Best Screenplay
The five nominees for Best Original Screenplay are all strong contenders, and at this point I don't see any of them as a clear favorite. This might be the hardest to predict so I'm going with Sean Baker for Anora. Why? Because Anora was my favorite film of the nominees so I'm picking it out of loyalty. As for Best Adapted Screenplay, I think that Conclave is the obvious frontrunner here. I would love to see Nickel Boys or Sing Sing get a surprise win, but I don't think that's going to happen. It's going to Conclave.
Best International Feature
This is the category that will break my heart because it's going to Emilia Perez. There are some acclaimed and even popular films in the running this time like Flow, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig but it doesn't matter. Emilia Perez will win and an air of apathetic predictability will fill the room.
Best Animated Feature
I thought this would be between Inside Out 2 and The Wild Robot, and it is — but Flow has a definite shot at winning as well. It would be great to see Memoir of a Snail pull off a surprise win, but this category always goes to children's films — so that's not happening. I'm voting for Flow.
Best Cinematography
Cheers for Nosferatu's moody, atmospheric cinematography getting a nomination. Jeers for the energetic, experimental camerawork of Nickel Boys being unrecognized. In the end, it's going to The Brutalist though.
Best Original Song
I can't believe Trent Reznor's incredible "Compress/Repress" from Challengers gets nothing but we get TWO of the laughably bad songs from Emilia Perez! Oh, wait. Yes I can. It's the Oscars after all. Anyway, it will go to "El Mal."
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
If The Substance doesn't win, we riot.
Forest's Predictions
Best Picture: Emilia Perez
Best Director: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Best Actor: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Best Actress: Mikey Madison in Anora
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez
Best Original Screenplay: Sean Baker for Anora
Best Adapted Screenplay: Peter Straughn for Conclave
Best International Feature: Emilia Perez (France)
Best Animated Feature: Flow
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist
Best Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance
